Credit: Netflix

Did you know that more than $5.6billion was wagered on the World Cup final through Polymarket and Kalshi? On one match. Yes, really. The new Netflix doc Instadocs: The Prediction Games asks what happens when that same gambling fever spreads to elections and celebrity news.

It is releasing on July 26th and looks at platforms where users trade contracts linked to future events. You back an outcome and wait for it to happen. When it does, ker-ching, you get paid. Could be sport. Politics. Even war.

Polymarket boss Shayne Coplan appears, as does Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. Michael Selig from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission appears too. They explain why these markets have gone massive. Supporters reckon money makes predictions sharper because people think harder when their cash is on the line.

Right. Sounds nearly convincing. But just then, the documentary gets to the part where everything goes feral. Bettors have reportedly pressured war correspondents to publish false information because the news could shift their positions.

Hackers have also been accused of faking Spotify streams to cash in on predictions. So nobody is just waiting for tomorrow. Oh no! They are poking it with a stick and hoping the payout drops. This is some seriously sneaky business.

That is the dark heart of The Prediction Games. These markets claim to measure what people think will happen, but money gives them a reason to meddle. The forecast becomes pressure. Nice system, until everyone starts trying to rig the weather.

The film also questions the so-called wisdom of crowds. A crowd might predict well in good faith, but chuck millions into the middle and watch good faith leg it. The Prediction Games is the second instalment in Netflix’s quick-turn Instadocs series, following Alex Murdaugh: Unconvicted.

So no, this is not just about online betting. It is about putting a price on tomorrow.